This is because after an event, the probability of it happening is, naturally, 100%. "Hindsight bias is the effect whereby people think that past events were predictable, or at least more predictable than they actually were. They were wild concoctions of his trouble mind.īut, of course, it all makes sense in retrospect for the gullible human brain. 'In the day of September 11, 2001, the twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York are going to be hit by two airplanes', I would have converted myself into one his fanatics.īut none of his so called predictions were specific. You can interpret it in hundreds of ways because it is not specific. ![]() Of course, even if the passage was actually written by him, it's meaningless. They seek and take passages out of context and fit in with their personal interpretations - after de facto.įor example, 'two big birds crashing into two tall statues'.ĭid he even write this? Or is it just another hoax cooked by 9/11 conspiracy theorists? But you know there are people who truly believe in his prophecies and explain to you how right Nostradamus was, how enlighten he was, how far ahead he was of his time. I couldn't find one for which he was right. He made numerous predictions about the future. Remember Nostradamus? The famous French prophet of The Middle Ages? Our Irrational Selves - The Confirmation Bias The Hindsight Bias Our Irrational Selves - The Priming Effect 2. This is the third part of the series on human irrationality. Think about it, if you go camping and you are to take, say, 60 items with you, what are the chances that you're going to forget something of use, anything? Unless you do very careful written planning, chances are you're going to forget something. If nothing was forgotten, he would not have said that - fake hunch. While camping when this issue is brought up, your father replies: 'I was sure this would happen!'. As it turns out, you forget to take mosquito protection spray. While preparing to go camping, your father tells your mother he feels someone is going to forget something at home. You tell that to your mother and she replies: 'Of course, I had a strong feeling you were going to be accepted', when in fact she had expressed doubts about it to your father earlier this week - she doesn't remember that though.Ģ. You receive a letter in the mail informing you that you have just been accepted to this illustrious college. ![]() We humans tend to be very good at predicting events - after they had already occurred. 'I knew it all along!' How many times a day you tell that to yourself?
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